Past edition of the "What Ian Can See" WICS trading information newsletter.
Ian's weekly look at the world economic situation and his world view. Members get access to the current edition, archives, chart analysis and one-to-one mentoring on your trading.
August 16th 2020
Hello again, and welcome back! It's hard to believe that three whole weeks have slipped by, yet more or less nothing has changed. It's that time of year.....and that type of crisis. As Mr Warner of the Torygraph put it so eloquently, "Britain's ship of fools sails on, rudderless amid the Covid seas". Absolutely! This latest French quarantine nonsense says it all really, while seemingly the Torygraph's look at the "world class" (according to Boris the Babbler) "test and trace" thing has found that the callers have made just one call a month, on average. Likewise, a study by Economic Insight via Sheffield and Loughborough Universities, suggests "Due to lockdown, the number of deaths not caused by CV19, dwarfed the numbers which were" says the BBC.
But funnily enough, Babbling Boris' lot are rather efficient at one thing - if I'm being nice, I'll call it "cronyism" but since the concept of being nice to politicians is alien to me, I'll call it by its correct name of "corruption". It hasn't taken the Babbler long to destroy any vestigial illusions we might have had that his government would be an honest and effective one, eh?
Have a read of this:
Sad, eh? But not at all surprising.
Oh yes, and while I remember - seemingly our health secretary has decided that "All GP consultations should be remote" according to the BBC. Hmm, how will blood pressure be taken, I wonder? Do we all buy thingies to take it ourselves? But we are to be proud of our fantastic NHS and the wonderful job it does. Utter and complete nonsense, and Aneurin Bevan must be spinning in his grave.
OK - enough trashing of politicians for the moment (but more thereof in links below....)
So what about the economy then? "Recession" seems to be the word for now, but it's pretty clear that will change its spelling later this year, to "depression". I can't see any way things could change in that regard, frankly.
I note that the Road Haulage Association head honcho reckons Customs & Excise need to recruit another 50000 staff to handle Brexit-generated paperwork, but there's not enough time left to train them. Oops. I guess the inevitable lorry park will extend well up the M6......
As regards job losses, a few that I noted over the past couple of weeks include another 2500 at Debenhams (to add to their 4000 back in May), 1500 soon at WH Smith, ditto LGH Hotels, DW Sports 1700, Hays Travel 900, ditto Dixons, Pizza Express 1100, Selfridges 450, and so it all goes on. If there's anyone left who believes there's a V-shaped economic recovery just around the corner, let me advise them that pear-shaped is closer to the truth. I see that the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) is proposing a six month notice period if you want to withdraw some of your dosh from any property fund you were daft enough to "invest" in at some point in your financial planning. Property funds are illiquid by their nature, but when more people want to put money in than take it out, that fact goes unnoticed, especially by so-called financial advisers who sell the idea that property is a "safe investment". Oops.
The rest of the world is little different - I note that Virgin Oz hs dumped 3000 staff, while there are just too many redundancies to bother reporting in Yankland. I see that more than a few bust Yank companies have come up with a cunning plan - they file for bankruptcy in order to avoid paying their debts, then "unfile" to collect some state aid, then file again. Ho ho ho.
Coming back to Brexit for a moment, I note a joint study by Oxford University and four similar German institutions, has established that migration from Blighty to the EU has increased by 30% since the referendum, while applications by Brits for EU country citizenship is up by 500%. Brain drain? You can bet on it! All we'll be left with will be people the calibre of Boris and our Dear Wee Leader in Scotland. Oh dear.
Anyway, onward to some charts after a few links to allow you to spend a few moments in quiet reflection, but before that I need to mention the fact that due to the number of visitors to Ullapool, with tents all over the place and nae toilets, the cooncil there has invested in 90 plastic trowels. One thereof will be found in each passing place, burying human sh*t for the purpose of. You couldn't make it up! How long will said trowel remain in place, I wonder? Will it migrate by car or motorbike, unused? What do you reckon?
OK - on to a plethora of links to stuff I picked up on these past weeks since we last spoke, then some charts. Here you go, in no particular order and with no comments from IW:
https://www.aier.org/ - How Global Capitalism Boosted Immunities
https://mises.org - When It Comes to Masks, There Is No "Settled Science"
https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk - The hocus "science" behind lockdown
https://www.telegraph.co.uk - Test and trace callers reaching just one contact a month
https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/ - Sweden's Success is Kryptonite for Lockdown and Mask Advocates
The first chart today is of Ashtead, which sports a countertrend channel complete with upwards probe and subsequent retrace, suggesting the prospect of more strength to come. Next - speaking about "property" earlier - British Land also sports a countertrend channel, this time with a more drawn out probe and retrace, but equally valid. This time however it's not "strength" that's implied. A very similar "look" also applies on the Diageo picture. Finally, there's a clear enough rising wedge to be seen on the chart of the S&P 500, implying a drop to come. However, it's so near an all time high, and people are so irrational and so in denial about economic reality, that I fully expect to see a new high made prior to the coming crash. Time will tell.....
OK - that's your lot for this weekend then, other than to give you some names to look at if you care to do so: TUI, Ryanair, Easyjet, Rolls Royce, Greggs, Hiscox, AXA, Old Mutual, IAG, Eastman Kodak, Rio Tinto, National Express.... No comment from me though - just stuff to examine and perhaps think about/learn from.
All the best till next weekend!
The rest of this post, which is the charts and analysis, is available to TTIWW course members only. Members receive the latest post, the archives, plus the manuals, video updates and one-to-one mentoring from Ian Williams via email.
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